Research and writing
Research and writing
Independent research I publish in full, with the code to reproduce it.
The Geometry of Risk
Working paper · SSRN · posted September 2026 · 34 pages
The Geometry of Risk: An Integrated Monitoring Framework for Multi-Asset Systemic Stress. Youness Yachruti, independent researcher.
A four-layer empirical framework for diagnosing multi-asset systemic stress, combining network topology, dynamic causality, tail-risk measurement and regime classification. Applied to nine global asset classes from April 2025 to April 2026 and a 14-year history, the Absorption Ratio breaches the 0.50 threshold in all four crisis windows tested, and an out-of-sample hidden Markov model trained on 14 years identifies the April 2026 stress regime without re-estimation. The paper is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed.
@misc{yachruti2026geometry,
author = {Yachruti, Youness},
title = {The Geometry of Risk: An Integrated Monitoring Framework for Multi-Asset Systemic Stress},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {SSRN preprint},
doi = {10.2139/ssrn.7521018},
url = {https://ssrn.com/abstract=7521018}
}
Licensed CC BY 4.0: free to share and adapt with credit to the author.
Visa: Stop Swiping For Now
Equity research · Seeking Alpha
A published valuation thesis on Visa Inc., with supporting financial analysis and a discussion of risk factors.