Research and writing

Research and writing

Independent research I publish in full, with the code to reproduce it.

The Geometry of Risk

Working paper · SSRN · posted September 2026 · 34 pages

The Geometry of Risk: An Integrated Monitoring Framework for Multi-Asset Systemic Stress. Youness Yachruti, independent researcher.

A four-layer empirical framework for diagnosing multi-asset systemic stress, combining network topology, dynamic causality, tail-risk measurement and regime classification. Applied to nine global asset classes from April 2025 to April 2026 and a 14-year history, the Absorption Ratio breaches the 0.50 threshold in all four crisis windows tested, and an out-of-sample hidden Markov model trained on 14 years identifies the April 2026 stress regime without re-estimation. The paper is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed.

@misc{yachruti2026geometry,
  author = {Yachruti, Youness},
  title  = {The Geometry of Risk: An Integrated Monitoring Framework for Multi-Asset Systemic Stress},
  year   = {2026},
  howpublished = {SSRN preprint},
  doi    = {10.2139/ssrn.7521018},
  url    = {https://ssrn.com/abstract=7521018}
}

Licensed CC BY 4.0: free to share and adapt with credit to the author.

Visa: Stop Swiping For Now

Equity research · Seeking Alpha

A published valuation thesis on Visa Inc., with supporting financial analysis and a discussion of risk factors.